Tracker Update: Stage is Set for Debates

Summer is here, and for the 2020 Democratic nomination campaign it's also the end of one season - announcements - and the beginning of the next - debates.  While some pundits believe Stacy Abrams is still contemplating a run, the field appears to be set.  Anyone, including Abrams, who joined the fray after this point faces significant disadvantages in fundraising as well as qualifying for the debates. So where do we stand on the eve of the first debate?


Biden's announcement wave has crested, but it leaves him in sole possession of frontrunner status heading into the debates. Behind him are four serious challengers: Sanders, Harris, Warren, and Buttigieg. O'Rourke, Booker, and Klobuchar are in the conversation.  Everyone else is a longshot at this point, and only a stellar, compelling debate performance that leads to a polling surge will keep them alive into the fall.  As Nate Silver noted earlier this week, that's likely to happen for one or two of the remaining candidates.  I'm largely in agreement with his take on which of them have the best chance:

  • Yang has a unique background, intriguing policy proposals, and a compelling plain-spoken style; 
  • Inslee can own climate change; 
  • Gillibrand is outspoken on women's issues and her faith background, and is not afraid to be an attack-dog on Trump; 
  • Castro is the lone hispanic candidate. 
No one else has a particularly unique story that is likely to catch on with a large number of voters, but the first round of debates will give them a chance to make their case.


Enjoy the start of summer!

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