April 5 Tracker Update: Biden Dip Continues
Greetings and Happy Friday. I waited a day from my usual schedule due to a relatively quiet week on the data front, but the Washington Post's latest power rankings are hot off the presses, so it's time for an update. Otherwise there are no changes to polls or endorsements since Monday's update (the PredictIt betting market is always on the move). Here's the table:
The Post dropped Biden from first to third in their ranking on the heels of his personal space issues. Meanwhile his betting stock has recovered a bit from the drop to 17¢ we saw Monday (The lowest I saw it this week was 16 I believe), but still behind his high of 26¢ we saw a few weeks ago. There hasn't been enough polling this week to see any effect on that front. On to the graph:
Biden has definitely seen a dip over the past week or so, but maintains his lead over the field. Meanwhile Buttigieg is holding his boosted status so far. It would be nice to see more early state polls, particularly New Hampshire and South Carolina, to see if anybody is starting to make a clear impact on the grassroots there.
A couple of topics to comment on: first, Tim Ryan officially entered the field this week. So far he hasn't shown up in any of the data that feeds into the Tracker. I expect to see him in the betting markets first, and you'd think he'd have an endorsement or two lined up already. We'll keep an eye on that going forward.
Second, we've started to see candidate first quarter fundraising numbers trickling in. This is clearly an important factor in establishing a candidate's status in the race, and I plan to add fundraising as a sixth major model input as soon as the official numbers are out. We should see those on April 15th. I haven't decided exactly how to score the dollars yet, but I would like to include both amount raised and number of donors at least.
That's all for now, enjoy the spring weekend!
The Post dropped Biden from first to third in their ranking on the heels of his personal space issues. Meanwhile his betting stock has recovered a bit from the drop to 17¢ we saw Monday (The lowest I saw it this week was 16 I believe), but still behind his high of 26¢ we saw a few weeks ago. There hasn't been enough polling this week to see any effect on that front. On to the graph:
Biden has definitely seen a dip over the past week or so, but maintains his lead over the field. Meanwhile Buttigieg is holding his boosted status so far. It would be nice to see more early state polls, particularly New Hampshire and South Carolina, to see if anybody is starting to make a clear impact on the grassroots there.
A couple of topics to comment on: first, Tim Ryan officially entered the field this week. So far he hasn't shown up in any of the data that feeds into the Tracker. I expect to see him in the betting markets first, and you'd think he'd have an endorsement or two lined up already. We'll keep an eye on that going forward.
Second, we've started to see candidate first quarter fundraising numbers trickling in. This is clearly an important factor in establishing a candidate's status in the race, and I plan to add fundraising as a sixth major model input as soon as the official numbers are out. We should see those on April 15th. I haven't decided exactly how to score the dollars yet, but I would like to include both amount raised and number of donors at least.
That's all for now, enjoy the spring weekend!
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