Hats in the Ring

Summer is here, and for the 2020 Democratic nomination campaign it's also the end of one season - announcements - and the beginning of the next - debates.  While some pundits believe Stacy Abrams is still contemplating a run, the field appears to be set.  Anyone, including Abrams, who joined the fray after this point faces significant disadvantages in fundraising as well as qualifying for the debates. So where do we stand on the eve of the first debate? Biden's announcement wave has crested, but it leaves him in sole possession of frontrunner status heading into the debates. Behind him are four serious challengers: Sanders, Harris, Warren, and Buttigieg. O'Rourke, Booker, and Klobuchar are in the conversation.  Everyone else is a longshot at this point, and only a stellar, compelling debate performance that leads to a polling surge will keep them alive into the fall.  As Nate Silver noted earlier this week, that's likely to happen for one or two of the remainin...

Another quick update today, my time has been consumed with life in general lately.  Things have settled down a bit since Biden's official announcement, and that's likely to remain the case until debates start up this summer.  Graph & table update: I've been compiling the Tracker numbers for about three months now, which is long enough to start calling out broader trends in the campaign.  Through all the launch buzz and town hall frenzy, there have really been just three major trends that I'm seeing: The Buttigieg Surge.  Mayor Pete's Tracker score started off in the 0.2 range in early March with the likes of Gabbard, Yang, and Hickenlooper.  Over the course of about six weeks he rose to become a serious contender in line with Warren, Harris, and O'Rourke. The Biden Launch.  Biden was already a frontrunner (along with Sanders) when he officially announced in late April.  The announcement has emphatically solidified his status as the (now...

I didn't get a chance to post an update on Friday after the pundit rankings came out, so I'll drop the graph and table in here even though it's a couple days old.  Biden continues to surge post-announcement.  Will it be a bubble, or will he be able to claim presumptive nominee status ala Hillary?

Just a brief update again today to reflect the latest numbers.  Biden continues to improve in polling since his announcement, and the bettors and pundits are following along. Warren's polling bump continues as well.  Meanwhile Gillibrand isn't getting good numbers from any quarter this week. Scoring Methods Explanation I'm curious if we'll see any of the Herd who've been languishing at one percent or less in polling manage to break out before debate season begins in June.  That is likely the next chance for someone to garner the kind of attention Buttigieg saw in March and April.