Tracker Update: Assessing Major Trends So Far

Another quick update today, my time has been consumed with life in general lately.  Things have settled down a bit since Biden's official announcement, and that's likely to remain the case until debates start up this summer.  Graph & table update:



I've been compiling the Tracker numbers for about three months now, which is long enough to start calling out broader trends in the campaign.  Through all the launch buzz and town hall frenzy, there have really been just three major trends that I'm seeing:

  1. The Buttigieg Surge.  Mayor Pete's Tracker score started off in the 0.2 range in early March with the likes of Gabbard, Yang, and Hickenlooper.  Over the course of about six weeks he rose to become a serious contender in line with Warren, Harris, and O'Rourke.
  2. The Biden Launch.  Biden was already a frontrunner (along with Sanders) when he officially announced in late April.  The announcement has emphatically solidified his status as the (now lone) frontrunner in the race.  That really frames the race going into debate season.  It will primarily be about who can rise up and knock Biden off his perch.
  3. Warren's Steady Gain.  Warren's campaign got off to a whimper, probably in some part due to her DNA test gaffe.  But since then she has quietly been building support, releasing solid policy proposals, and slowly, steadily gaining in the polls.  She's now well positioned to be a top contender heading into the debates.
That's all for today.  Will we see another slow week ahead, or will there be some new shifts in the winds?

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