Tracker Update: First Signs of Debate Results
Just a quick update today to show how the Tracker has begun to move immediately after this week's debates. It is obviously too soon for polling data, which is where some of the model's other inputs are valuable -- the pundit ratings and betting market are already reflecting debate performances. Here are the numbers:
For the most part, the betting market is moving in the direction that seems to be the consensus of pundits on how each candidate performed in the first debates. Harris leads all gainers in the PredictIt market with a gain of 8, while Biden and Yang are tied with the biggest loss at -5 (as of about 9am ET this morning). Likewise, the Washington Post moved Harris to the top of their power rankings, while Castro gained two spots to 7th, with Biden, O'Rourke, and Yang all dropping. We'll start to see the first post-debate poll results early next week, which will be the true test of how the voters are responding. We're also coming up on the next campaign finance quarterly report, which should be released by the FEC on July 15, so lots of action in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!
For the most part, the betting market is moving in the direction that seems to be the consensus of pundits on how each candidate performed in the first debates. Harris leads all gainers in the PredictIt market with a gain of 8, while Biden and Yang are tied with the biggest loss at -5 (as of about 9am ET this morning). Likewise, the Washington Post moved Harris to the top of their power rankings, while Castro gained two spots to 7th, with Biden, O'Rourke, and Yang all dropping. We'll start to see the first post-debate poll results early next week, which will be the true test of how the voters are responding. We're also coming up on the next campaign finance quarterly report, which should be released by the FEC on July 15, so lots of action in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!
Comments
Post a Comment