Tracker Update: Adding Economist/YouGov Data to the Formula

I've finally made the leap and added new information to the formula.  Since early April the Economist/YouGov's weekly polling has included a question on which Democratic candidates survey respondents are considering.  Now that there's a bank of two months of data for that statistic, it appears to be really informative in showing how people are gradually narrowing down (or expanding) their options for the candidate they'll eventually vote for.

Here are the Economist/YouGov Considering percentages for the major candidates (apologies for not using the same line colors as the Tracker graph, I don't have a lot of time today).  While the trends are not as dramatic as we see with top line polling, we can clearly see some shifts over time in how the voters are viewing the candidates.  The largest overall shifts since early April are Warren and Buttigieg gaining about 10% in voter consideration, while O'Rourke has lost about 10%.  Other notables: Sanders, Warren, and Harris are essentially tied; Castro and Gillibrand are in relatively better shape here than in the toplines. I think this is probably the clearest single picture of the state of the race that we have right now.  From the same YouGov poll, we know that only about 1/3 of voters have settled on a single candidate at this point, and even they could change their minds at any point.

So I've now incorporated this dataset into the overall Hats In The Ring Tracker score, and applied the numbers retroactively back to April 16.  Here's the updated graph:


Biden's announcement surge has crested but he still remains a clear tier above anyone else.  Sanders remains second but is gradually losing ground to Harris, Warren, and Buttigieg (I would put them all in the same tier at this point).  O'Rourke has made no headway since his launch.  Here are the current numbers:


The first debate is just a few weeks away, and will be critical for the lower-tier candidates to introduce themselves to the electorate and bring some attention to their campaigns.  After a quiet month or so things are about to heat up...

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