Tracker Update: Some Small Trends Heading Into Tonight's Debate
Today's update gives us a snapshot of where the race stands as the candidates gather in Miami for the first Democratic primary debates. While there have been no major trends since the previously noted gains of Buttigieg and Warren, there are some minor twists and turns that could foreshadow events in the debates or beyond. To the data:
Let's start with Kamala Harris. At the beginning of 2019 she was in the spotlight as the clear leader of the pack of lesser-known candidates. While she's technically still in that position, she has yet to build on or consolidate that support. Her campaign has seemed a bit flat of late, and she's been surpassed by Warren and caught up by Buttigieg. She's the only one of the top eight candidates whose poll numbers in early states are lower than they are nationally. So she's not exactly wowing voters on the local retail campaign front. On the other hand she's received some notable endorsements in the past week, and she has a fairly strong upside in terms of the percentage of voters considering her.
Next up is the trio of O'Rourke, Booker, and Klobuchar. For much of the campaign they have occupied a middle tier between the front runners and the rest of the pack. If you squint just right though it appears that both O'Rourke and Booker have made modest gains in the past few weeks while Klobuchar is sitting still. It's not enough to label a trend, but it will be interesting to see how these three try to position themselves in the debates.
In the next tier down we have Gillibrand, Castro, and Yang. Gillibrand's campaign has been stagnant for most of 2019, with the only boost coming from her decent first quarter cash influx. In recent weeks she's been caught up by Castro and Yang. Castro has flirted with this level before, so it's not clear whether his current rise is meaningful. Yang on the other hand has seen a slow steady rise for about two months now, managing to move above the remaining pack.
This week's debates are a chance for at least a few of these candidates to frame the narrative and make a significant jump from the status quo. It will be fascinating to see who pulls that off, and whether anyone takes a nosedive.
Let's start with Kamala Harris. At the beginning of 2019 she was in the spotlight as the clear leader of the pack of lesser-known candidates. While she's technically still in that position, she has yet to build on or consolidate that support. Her campaign has seemed a bit flat of late, and she's been surpassed by Warren and caught up by Buttigieg. She's the only one of the top eight candidates whose poll numbers in early states are lower than they are nationally. So she's not exactly wowing voters on the local retail campaign front. On the other hand she's received some notable endorsements in the past week, and she has a fairly strong upside in terms of the percentage of voters considering her.
Next up is the trio of O'Rourke, Booker, and Klobuchar. For much of the campaign they have occupied a middle tier between the front runners and the rest of the pack. If you squint just right though it appears that both O'Rourke and Booker have made modest gains in the past few weeks while Klobuchar is sitting still. It's not enough to label a trend, but it will be interesting to see how these three try to position themselves in the debates.
In the next tier down we have Gillibrand, Castro, and Yang. Gillibrand's campaign has been stagnant for most of 2019, with the only boost coming from her decent first quarter cash influx. In recent weeks she's been caught up by Castro and Yang. Castro has flirted with this level before, so it's not clear whether his current rise is meaningful. Yang on the other hand has seen a slow steady rise for about two months now, managing to move above the remaining pack.
This week's debates are a chance for at least a few of these candidates to frame the narrative and make a significant jump from the status quo. It will be fascinating to see who pulls that off, and whether anyone takes a nosedive.
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