April 1st Ratings Update
It's only been a few days since I presented the first results from the 2020 ratings model, but we've already had some new information come in. First, the table.
We have a new early state poll from Nevada, the first one from the Silver State I've seen since I started building the model in January. For the most part it tracks with other polling, with a few notables. Buttigieg and Yang both show up in this poll at five and three percent respectively, which seems to further establish their credibility as contenders. Also of note, Hickenlooper and Inslee got no votes (or at least not enough to round to 1%), which doesn't bode well for either of these western governors. Meanwhile, the PredictIt betting market is already reflecting some angst for the Biden campaign, after some accusations of the #MeToo genre came out late last week -- Biden's stock has dropped from 20¢ on Friday to 17¢ this morning.
So now it's time to start looking at trends. I started collecting data on this version of the model around the end of February (earlier versions lacked some of the current data inputs). Here's how the ratings look over the past month:
I hope that's legible! Apologies to the colorblind, it's a challenge to find distinct colors for this many candidates. If there are certain lines that appear indistinguishable to some, let me know and I'll continue tweaking them.
So what are the ratings showing us for the past month? Most notably, Buttigieg's meteoric rise is clear to see. He was first noticed in betting markets, where his stock had risen to 9¢ by March 7th and stands at 16¢ today. Next he showed up in a couple of early state polls (including a strong 11% in Iowa) and then began rising in the WaPo power rankings. He now has some visibility in national polls, lacking only in endorsements currently. It'll be interesting to see how long his moment in the spotlight lasts - if history is any guide, we'll see several of these moments among various candidates before all is said and done.
What else can we see? Biden has had a clear lead so far, but is potentially facing a slump based on the recent news. Beto got a nice bump from his campaign launch, but remains behind frontrunners Biden, Sanders, and Harris, who is coming back to earth after her launch-bump took place prior to the start of these ratings. Klobuchar hasn't gained any traction from her launch and is in danger of falling into a lower tier altogether.
Speaking of tiers, can the ratings help us sort the candidates into tiers at this point? It's not clear cut, but I would put Biden, Sanders, Harris, and arguably O'Rourke into a top tier currently. Tier 2 consists of Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, and now Buttigieg(!). It gets muddled below that, but I think we can see a Tier 3 of Gillibrand and Castro (having been left behind, for the moment at least, by Mayor Pete). Next up we'll say a Tier 4 consists of Hickenlooper, Yang, and Inslee. Finally, Gabbard and Delaney are relegated to Tier 5, the bottom rung for "major candidates".
Speaking of which, a word about which candidates I'm choosing to track in the ratings. All of the candidates I'm tracking show up in at least two of the data sources used (national polls, early state polls, pundit ratings, endorsements, or betting markets). I'll stick with that rule unless an obvious exception presents itself. Coincidentally the current field matches 538's group who make the cut based on their criteria.
That's all for today, I expect to post an update later this week and continue at least once a week after that. The frequency will no doubt vary based on my spare time and on major updates in the data.
So now it's time to start looking at trends. I started collecting data on this version of the model around the end of February (earlier versions lacked some of the current data inputs). Here's how the ratings look over the past month:
I hope that's legible! Apologies to the colorblind, it's a challenge to find distinct colors for this many candidates. If there are certain lines that appear indistinguishable to some, let me know and I'll continue tweaking them.
So what are the ratings showing us for the past month? Most notably, Buttigieg's meteoric rise is clear to see. He was first noticed in betting markets, where his stock had risen to 9¢ by March 7th and stands at 16¢ today. Next he showed up in a couple of early state polls (including a strong 11% in Iowa) and then began rising in the WaPo power rankings. He now has some visibility in national polls, lacking only in endorsements currently. It'll be interesting to see how long his moment in the spotlight lasts - if history is any guide, we'll see several of these moments among various candidates before all is said and done.
What else can we see? Biden has had a clear lead so far, but is potentially facing a slump based on the recent news. Beto got a nice bump from his campaign launch, but remains behind frontrunners Biden, Sanders, and Harris, who is coming back to earth after her launch-bump took place prior to the start of these ratings. Klobuchar hasn't gained any traction from her launch and is in danger of falling into a lower tier altogether.
Speaking of tiers, can the ratings help us sort the candidates into tiers at this point? It's not clear cut, but I would put Biden, Sanders, Harris, and arguably O'Rourke into a top tier currently. Tier 2 consists of Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, and now Buttigieg(!). It gets muddled below that, but I think we can see a Tier 3 of Gillibrand and Castro (having been left behind, for the moment at least, by Mayor Pete). Next up we'll say a Tier 4 consists of Hickenlooper, Yang, and Inslee. Finally, Gabbard and Delaney are relegated to Tier 5, the bottom rung for "major candidates".
Speaking of which, a word about which candidates I'm choosing to track in the ratings. All of the candidates I'm tracking show up in at least two of the data sources used (national polls, early state polls, pundit ratings, endorsements, or betting markets). I'll stick with that rule unless an obvious exception presents itself. Coincidentally the current field matches 538's group who make the cut based on their criteria.
That's all for today, I expect to post an update later this week and continue at least once a week after that. The frequency will no doubt vary based on my spare time and on major updates in the data.
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