Tracker Update: Money and Tiers Heading Into the Second Debate
Candidates' FEC filings for the second quarter of 2019 are in and shed a harsh light on the contenders and pretenders for the race as it stands here in mid-summer. They have been incorporated into the Hats in the Ring Tracker so let's have a look:
As you can see from the table, I'm now factoring three facets of fund raising into the tracker. Total money raised for the quarter gets twice the weight of cash on hand and small donation dollars. The big winner of the fundraising sweepstakes is Pete Buttigieg, who punched well above his weight by pulling in $25 million, more than anyone but Sanders (whose total is inflated by cash transfers). If there was any doubt Buttigieg belonged with the other frontrunning candidates, this should put that to rest, at least for the next three months. Mayor Pete is here to stay.
We also know who has qualified for the second round of debates to be held at the end of this month. And it conveniently coincides precisely with the candidates listed in the table above. Swalwell has bowed out, and none of the other official candidates (Steyer, Moulton, etc.) have generated enough of a signal across the datasphere for me to add them to the table. Also I should note here that I have finally cut off the Stacey Abrams data series in the graph. Others here and there are still including her in discussions of candidates (she was still in the WaPo Power Rankings as recently as last week), but there is no realistic chance for her to make a serious run at this late stage. She will have missed the first two debates and almost certainly would not be able to qualify for the third even if she launched tomorrow.
So with current standings in mind, it's time to take another big picture look at Candidate Tiers. Here's how I see it:
Tier I: The Serious Contenders
Biden
Warren
Sanders
Harris
Buttigieg
No one outside these five has come close to their fundraising numbers, and it's been awhile since anyone competed with them in polling. It's looking increasingly like the 2020 Democratic nominee is going to come from this group. But there's still plenty of time, and others to consider...
Tier II: In the Running
Booker
O'Rourke
Klobuchar
Castro
These four are clearly on a lower playing field than the first tier, but they retain enough credibility in fundraising and the polls to make a run. The debates are critical for this tier, as they could still launch themselves into the top tier with a stellar performance. They know this first-hand, as the first debate launched Castro into this tier while pulling O'Rourke down to it.
Tier III: On Life Support
Yang
Bennet
Gillibrand
Inslee
Gabbard
Bullock
De Blasio
It would be a near-miraculous upset if any of this group won the nomination. They've got just enough funding to keep going for awhile, but few of them will qualify for the third round of debates. Yang and Gillibrand probably have the best shot to clear that hurdle, but that just keeps them in the conversation a little longer.
Tier IV: Dead in the Water
Delaney
Ryan
Williamson
Hickenlooper
These four really have no business remaining in the race at this point. Their campaigns are generating no serious traction and they're not going to qualify for the third round. They are just playing out the string. To be fair, I wanted to consider Hickenlooper for Tier III simply by virtue of him being a state governor. But then I looked at the latest YouGov poll of who voters are considering. Only two percent of voters are even considering Hickenlooper, tied with Williamson for the lowest number. That has to hurt for a once-proud governor.
The next round of debates are bound to shake things up a bit, but how solid are these tiers becoming? Can't wait to see....
As you can see from the table, I'm now factoring three facets of fund raising into the tracker. Total money raised for the quarter gets twice the weight of cash on hand and small donation dollars. The big winner of the fundraising sweepstakes is Pete Buttigieg, who punched well above his weight by pulling in $25 million, more than anyone but Sanders (whose total is inflated by cash transfers). If there was any doubt Buttigieg belonged with the other frontrunning candidates, this should put that to rest, at least for the next three months. Mayor Pete is here to stay.
We also know who has qualified for the second round of debates to be held at the end of this month. And it conveniently coincides precisely with the candidates listed in the table above. Swalwell has bowed out, and none of the other official candidates (Steyer, Moulton, etc.) have generated enough of a signal across the datasphere for me to add them to the table. Also I should note here that I have finally cut off the Stacey Abrams data series in the graph. Others here and there are still including her in discussions of candidates (she was still in the WaPo Power Rankings as recently as last week), but there is no realistic chance for her to make a serious run at this late stage. She will have missed the first two debates and almost certainly would not be able to qualify for the third even if she launched tomorrow.
So with current standings in mind, it's time to take another big picture look at Candidate Tiers. Here's how I see it:
Tier I: The Serious Contenders
Biden
Warren
Sanders
Harris
Buttigieg
No one outside these five has come close to their fundraising numbers, and it's been awhile since anyone competed with them in polling. It's looking increasingly like the 2020 Democratic nominee is going to come from this group. But there's still plenty of time, and others to consider...
Tier II: In the Running
Booker
O'Rourke
Klobuchar
Castro
These four are clearly on a lower playing field than the first tier, but they retain enough credibility in fundraising and the polls to make a run. The debates are critical for this tier, as they could still launch themselves into the top tier with a stellar performance. They know this first-hand, as the first debate launched Castro into this tier while pulling O'Rourke down to it.
Tier III: On Life Support
Yang
Bennet
Gillibrand
Inslee
Gabbard
Bullock
De Blasio
It would be a near-miraculous upset if any of this group won the nomination. They've got just enough funding to keep going for awhile, but few of them will qualify for the third round of debates. Yang and Gillibrand probably have the best shot to clear that hurdle, but that just keeps them in the conversation a little longer.
Tier IV: Dead in the Water
Delaney
Ryan
Williamson
Hickenlooper
These four really have no business remaining in the race at this point. Their campaigns are generating no serious traction and they're not going to qualify for the third round. They are just playing out the string. To be fair, I wanted to consider Hickenlooper for Tier III simply by virtue of him being a state governor. But then I looked at the latest YouGov poll of who voters are considering. Only two percent of voters are even considering Hickenlooper, tied with Williamson for the lowest number. That has to hurt for a once-proud governor.
The next round of debates are bound to shake things up a bit, but how solid are these tiers becoming? Can't wait to see....
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