Hats in the Ring

Just a quick update today to show how the Tracker has begun to move immediately after this week's debates.  It is obviously too soon for polling data, which is where some of the model's other inputs are valuable -- the pundit ratings and betting market are already reflecting debate performances.  Here are the numbers: For the most part, the betting market is moving in the direction that seems to be the consensus of pundits on how each candidate performed in the first debates.  Harris leads all gainers in the PredictIt market with a gain of 8, while Biden and Yang are tied with the biggest loss at -5 (as of about 9am ET this morning).  Likewise, the Washington Post moved Harris to the top of their power rankings, while Castro gained two spots to 7th, with Biden, O'Rourke, and Yang all dropping.  We'll start to see the first post-debate poll results early next week, which will be the true test of how the voters are responding.  We're also coming up on...

Today's update gives us a snapshot of where the race stands as the candidates gather in Miami for the first Democratic primary debates.  While there have been no major trends since the previously noted gains of Buttigieg and Warren, there are some minor twists and turns that could foreshadow events in the debates or beyond.  To the data: Let's start with Kamala Harris. At the beginning of 2019 she was in the spotlight as the clear leader of the pack of lesser-known candidates. While she's technically still in that position, she has yet to build on or consolidate that support.  Her campaign has seemed a bit flat of late, and she's been surpassed by Warren and caught up by Buttigieg.  She's the only one of the top eight candidates whose poll numbers in early states are lower than they are nationally.  So she's not exactly wowing voters on the local retail campaign front.  On the other hand she's received some notable endorsements in the past week, and...

Elizabeth Warren is in the midst of a full-on surge, and what's most interesting about this is that it's not simply an announcement bubble as we've seen with Biden, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, and O'Rourke.  On the contrary, her announcement fell flat, coming on the heels of her DNA test gaffe.  But here in June her numbers are on the rise.  Possible reasons?  She's strategically released a barrage of solid policy proposals throughout the spring.  We've also heard that she's invested much of her early campaign cash into building a strong on-the-ground organization, likely before others have gotten theirs fully off the ground.  Whatever the cause, Warren is currently reaping the dividends, and it is great timing heading into the much-anticipated first Democratic debate later this month.  To the numbers: Warren's gains have come across the board, with increasing polling numbers both nationally and in early states.  The percentage of people con...

I've finally made the leap and added new information to the formula.  Since early April the Economist/YouGov's weekly polling  has included a question on which Democratic candidates survey respondents are considering .  Now that there's a bank of two months of data for that statistic, it appears to be really informative in showing how people are gradually narrowing down (or expanding) their options for the candidate they'll eventually vote for. Here are the Economist/YouGov Considering percentages for the major candidates (apologies for not using the same line colors as the Tracker graph, I don't have a lot of time today).  While the trends are not as dramatic as we see with top line polling, we can clearly see some shifts over time in how the voters are viewing the candidates.  The largest overall shifts since early April are Warren and Buttigieg gaining about 10% in voter consideration, while O'Rourke has lost about 10%.  Other notables: Sanders, Warr...